Beck To Reality

Team GB kick off their Olympic campaign this evening against Senegal, with supporters of a more hopeful nature confident that success is not beyond us. Considering our first two games have yielded two defeats (to Mexico and Brazil), it's fair to say that such optimism is not likely to be shared by many more than the optimistic minority. Instead, most of us seem more concerned with who isn't participating in the Games rather than the players that have been assigned with securing gold for Great Britain. And no, I'm not talking about Gareth Bale...

David Beckham is a rare breed of footballer, one who is shrouded in so much mythos and adulation that his footballing ability is seldom discussed and on the few occasions when it is it's often the subject of grandiose exaggeration. This is because Beckham, like Bobby Moore before him, has become synonymous with British, or more precisely English, football. This is not to say that Beckham or Moore were never great players, they of course were. But their status amongst supporters across the nation is so firmly established, for a myriad of reasons, that they are rarely spoken of in a rational manner.

Take, for example, the reaction to Beckham's omission from Team GB. Stuart Pearce has felt the chagrin of a nation that had set their hearts on seeing Beckham compete in one last international tournament. They felt that after all his efforts to help us secure the Olympic games-a few handshakes here and there, photos with various delegates and autographs for their children-that 'Goldenballs' should have been the first name on Pearce's squad. Since news of Beckham's exclusion broke, the more technically adept of the disgruntled masses have taken to YouTube, complying dossiers of evidence that Beckham still has what it takes to merit a place in Team GB. Much of this evidence consists of aesthetically pleasing goals scored for his club side LA Galaxy, mainly his 'wonder strike' in Galaxy's 3-1 win over Portland Timbers. Granted, it was an impressive strike...but it was scored against a team that has thus far accumulated 19 points from 20 games and have already shipped 35 goals, leaving them rooted to the bottom of the 'Eastern Conference' of the MLS. If scoring past the Portland Timbers merited a place on Team GB, then their really would be little room for optimism.

Some of you may take this point and suggest that I am merely castigating Beckham for playing in the MLS, which would be wrong. I can't pertain to have agreed with Beckham's decision to leave Real Madrid for the comforts of Los Angeles, but that is not to say that I believe the MLS to be lacking in quality players. Landon Donovan, Rafael Marquez, Thierry Henry, Tim Cahill are just a few names that provide evidence of the strengths of American football. However, most of these players (Donovan) being the exception are in the twilight period of their careers and were without doubt lured to America by fantastic commercial offers. In this instance, they are no different to Beckham...the difference lies in the fact that none of these players (other than Henry) are anywhere near as marketable as Beckham. There was no great need for the former England captain to join America, a move to a more competitive footballing country would have been just as viable as his move to the Galaxy. The reality was that Beckham could no longer physically compete in a major competition, so he (naturally) accepted a lucrative contract in a less competitive league. I don't blame him for that, not one bit. But let's note hide from this reality...

So, if Beckham wasn't up to it five years ago (2007; when he signed for Galaxy) then why would anyone think he is now? Sentiment appears to be the only straightforward answer. And there is a strong case for sentiment, no doubt. Beckham is a fantastic ambassador for British football who always performed his duties as England captain admirably. Away from the pitch, he is a dedicated family man and an excellent businessman. On top of all that, he appears to be a thoroughly nice bloke too. But there's a lot of businessmen, family men and nice blokes in the world. Should they have been considered by Pearce too? Of course not.

I should point out here that I do not dislike Beckham, nor would I have been especially offended had he been picked for Team GB. Olympic football, for me, isn't anything to get overly excited about. It's a chance to see some emerging talents in world football, but even then most of the 'hot tips' for 2012 are already well established names across the world. I will, of course, watch Team GB, if only to see Ryan Giggs finally get the opportunity to play in an international tournament. Giggs is one year Beckham's senior and would probably have liked to have had his former Manchester United colleague around for the Games. But Giggs, unlike Becks, still plays at the top level and was always better than him anyway. That's where reality bites...

@benrasmin

Euro 2012: The Review

'Sometimes in life you need to be able to accept defeat and compliment opponents who were better...We have nothing to complain about. Spain were the better team and we congratulate them.'

Gianluigi Buffon is as classy off the field as he is in between the sticks, and his summary of last night's European Championship final is as accurate as anything I can hope to piece together in this post. There is a time in sporting history when a particular team or athlete emerge who defy description, who possess so much talent that no superlative can do them justice. The Spanish team that last night won their third consecutive tournament final are more than befitting of such status.

In the build up to last night's game, many (myself included) speculated that Cesare Prandelli's Italy team could be capable of an upset. Indeed, some had predicted that Spain would not even make the final of Euro 2012, let alone win it with such candour. Again, this is a crime that I was guilty of committing. However, if there is one certainty that I have established in the aftermath of Spain's latest triumph, it is that I will never doubt them again. They are a special side and are capable of beating any team that is put in their path.

Some of the criticism that was levelled at Vicente Del Bosque's team during the tournament now looks more ridiculous than ever. If this Spain team are boring, then I'd love to see what an exciting team constitute. Last night, they controlled a game that was actually relatively even in terms of possession and chances created. The almost telepathic understanding shared by their players when attacking the opposition gives them an edge over any team they come up against, and this advantage was put to good use against the Italians. Each of the four goals by La Roja were the result of a pass being threaded in between a defence that had conceded only three goals prior to the final, Italy's back four unable to deal with the movement of their counterparts. When discussing the 4-6-0 formation that has been the subject of recent debate, Gianluca Vialli said:

'Spain's striker is the space in front of and behind the defenders'

While it may sound a fairly basic suggestion, Vialli actually came closer than any other analyst has thus far to summarising the formation that Del Bosque pioneered several months ago. In the absence of a recognised centre forward, Spain's midfielders get ample opportunity to expose gaps left by the opposition whilst they are attempting (and often failing) to win possession back. David Silva's opening goal is a perfect example of the effectiveness of Spain's system; Xavi pirouets and finds Iniesta, who then spots Fabregas making a run in behind Chiellini, the ball is threaded in between the latter and his centre half, carried to the byline and then lifted onto the head of the incoming Manchester midfielder, who heads past a stranded Buffon. Xabi Alonso's first goal against France and Fabregas's eqauliser against Italy in the opening group stage game also act as ample proof that the absence of a traditional number ten is more than justified.

The emergence of Jordi Alba at left back has also added another dimension to a team that has at times been criticised for a perceived lack of width. Both Silva and Andres Iniesta like to tuck inside when occupying the wide areas, often meaning that Spain's opponents (Portugal, for example) will look to break in the wide areas when in possession. Alba, however, gives Spain an extra option when the ball is played out wide, with their second goal being demonstrative of the threat offered by Barcelona's latest acquisition. Xavi's ball was delightful, but the real beauty of the strike was the amount of ground covered by Alba to be able to get on the end of the pass and finish the move.

By the time that goal was scored, few were left believing that Italy could find a way back into the game. The worldwide media had been clamouring to heap praise on the majestic Andrea Pirlo in the build up to the final, and Del Bosque clearly took note of the 34 year old's influence in the Italy team. Spain's midfielders were quick to press on the Juventus midfielder whenever he was in possession, and Pirlo subsequently spent much of the first half in his own area, often being forced to play the ball backwards. Ricardo Montolivo and Claudio Marchisio often tried to press ahead of Spain's holding midfielders in the early stages, but this threat was also nullified by the deployment of two holding players to shield the back four when Spain lost the ball. With the supply from the midfield minimal, Italy's centre forward partnership of Antonio Cassano and Mario Balotelli were left isolated up front. Cassano, wonderfully described by Vialli as a 'reliable genius', occasionally managed to get hold of the ball but his partner Balotelli was expertly marshalled by both Sergio Ramos and Gerard Pique, restricting the Milan striker's options when in possession. Put frankly, Italy were shackled.

In many respects that is the beauty of the Spanish team...for all their attacking panache, they are also incredibly disciplined, with every player doing their bit to close the opposition down when not in possession. This is another strength of the 4-6-0, with Fabregas often dropping back to support the defensive efforts of his teammates, which meant that Italy were never able to get in their stride in the opening stages of the game. By the time the third and fourth goals came, Prandelli's side had been pushed to their limit, with the withdrawal of substitute Thiago Motta due to injury not aiding their cause. Leonardo Bonucci and Andrea Barzagli in particular looked exhausted, with may acount for the sloppy nature of their defending for both goals. The loss of the influential Giorgio Chiellini to injury in the early stages also hurt the Italian's chances of shackling their flamboyant opponents. Indeed, the fact that Italy were forced to finish the game with ten men was probably the only blemish on what was otherwise an exceptional end to what has been a thoroughly enjoying tournament.

In the aftermath of Spain's win, much discussion has turned as to whether they are the best international side of all time. Some of the more experienced consumers of the sport will argue that the 1970 Brazil side remain befitting of that title, but the records broken by Xavi, Iniesta and co suggest otherwise. Certainly, they are the best team I have ever had the pleasure of watching and it is hard to see when their dominance will come to an end. Iniesta remains only 28, and whilst Xavi's fitness has been of concern in recent seasons, Spain remain remarkably blessed in the midfield department and in Xabi Alonso possess a player capable of leading the team to further glory in 2014. With Carlos Puyol and David Villa to return from injury, as well as a host of young talent emerging in their domestic league, Spain's paws seem set to remain on football's major international trophies for some time yet.

So with the final now fully digested, it's time for me to turn my attention to Euro 2012 as a whole. Let's begin with my team of the tournament, which I should warn you is more than a little Spain eccentric...

GOALKEEPER

Iker Casillas, Spain: I originally intended to go with Buffon, but the performance of the Spain captain last evening means he just edges ahead of his Italian counterpart. Casillas dealt with a number of crosses from Italy's full backs, including one that was destined for the head of Balotelli, who would have levelled the game had he been able to get a touch. The fact that prior to last night's game Casillas had not conceded in 990 minutes of international knock-out football also ensured his place in my team. A class act.

DEFENCE

Phillip Lahm, Germany: Joachim Low's team ultimately fell short of expectations and are clearly a side that are still developing. Lahm, though, is a player at the peak of his powers and he enjoyed an assured tournament on the right hand side of Germany's defence. His goal against Greece was also befitting of a player that exudes all the true attributes of an international captain.

Gerard Pique, Spain: Considering Pique endured his most difficult season to date at Barcelona last term, his performances for his country were nothing short of revelatory. A rare blend of toughness and composure on the ball, he was particularly crucial in the semi-final tie against Portugal.

Sergio Ramos, Spain: If Pique makes the team, then his centre back partner cannot be excluded. Ramos has often been the subject of criticism from the press both at home and abroad, with many perceiving him to be a dirty player. While he is certainly no saint, the Real Madrid centre half is an exceptional athlete and was crucial in keeping Balotelli quiet in the final.

Jordi Alba, Spain: Fabio Coentrao enjoyed a fine tournament for the Portugese, but Alba's performance in the final earns him a place in the final eleven. Having only made his international debut last October, the former Valencia man has done well to make the left back spot his own and has been crucial in offering Spain another dimension when in possession. His goal against Italy was fantastic.

MIDFIELD

Daniele De Rossi, Italy: De Rossi could quite easily have been selected as a defender in this team, having started the tournamnet as part of a three man defence for the Italians. A true professional, he excelled in both roles and will have done much to revive the libero role after excelling in it himself in the opening group stage game against Spain. Was also crucial when asked to return to his more familiar midfield role later in the tournament.

Andrea Pirlo, Italy: Having been deemed past his best last summer by AC Milan, Andrea Pirlo has enjoyed an Indian summer like no other. Influential in Juventus' unbeaten Serie A season, the playmaker has also been crucial in helping his nation reach the final of Euro 2012. Whilst he was squeezed out of last night's contest, he will still be remembered as one of the truly great midfielders of the twenty first century.

Xabi Alonso, Spain: Alonso's performances for Spain at this tournament have made the decision by Liverpool to sell him in 2009 look even more baffling. With Xavi at times occupying a deeper role for Spain, Alonso has developed into a more offensive threat for the Spanish, evidenced by his brace against France in the quarter-finals. His range of passing remains unmatched by any other player and he also provides a crucial threat in the air, both defensively and when in attack.

Andres Iniesta, Spain: Iniesta is often regarded as being under-rated by some, though this is a sentiment that has always been lost on me. Celebrated for his performances at the last World Cup, which included scoring the winning goal in the final, his stock has only risen higher for his endeavours in Poland and Ukraine. Blessed with incredible vision, both when starting moves and finishing them, he is sure to join his club colleague Xavi in being remembered as one of the finest players of all time. Player of the tournament.

ATTACK

Cesc Fabregas, Spain: There is a compelling argument for the inclusion of Mario Gomez in this attacking line up, but the magnitude of Fabregas' performances for the winners should not be lost on anybody. Asked to play as the most advanced of six midfielders, the former Arsenal captain has enjoyed his best tournament for the Spanish and has also finally managed to establish himself in the starting line up of Del Bosque's team. His movement off the ball were just as crucial as his two goals.  

Mario Balotelli, Italy: Eyebrows may furrow at the inclusion of the controversial Manchester City striker, but there can be no doubt that this was a breakthrough tournament for him. Often derided for his behaviour off the pitch (and sometimes his behaviour on it) Balotelli showed a keeness to work for his team and recovered well from a less than inspiring performance in the opening game against Spain. His goals against Germany in the semi-final also suggested that he may finally have come of age.

SUBSTITUTES

Gianluigi Buffon, Italy: Narrowly pipped by Iker Casillas to a place in the starting eleven, Buffon remains at 34 a crucial component of the Italian team. And he belts out his country's national anthem like nobody else...

Pepe, Portugal: Germany's Mats Hummels would have made the bench were it not for his horror show against Italy, providing everybody's favourite villian Pepe with a chance to make the team. Defended expertly for the Portugese and also scored a vital goal against Denmark in the group stage.

Steven Gerrard, England: Very unlucky not to make the final team, Gerrard led his country admirably and rose comfortably to the challenge of being made captain. One can only wonder why he wasn't given the armband a whole lot sooner. Our best player by some distance.

Xavi, Spain: It seems wrong to put Andres Iniesta in any team without Xavi alongside him, such is the connection between the two players. Xabi Alonso's strikes against France just edge him ahead of the Barcelona maestro for me though. That being said, he remains one of the finest players on the planet.

David Silva, Spain: I've elected for the former because of his opening strike in the final. Also, he has done well to finally establish him in the Spain starting eleven, having often been a bit-part player in recent years.

Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal: Came closer than ever before to inspiring his team to glory, but was bizarrely asked to take the fifth penalty in the shootout against Spain. Deserved better.

Mario Gomez, Germany: Edges ahead of Mario Mandzukic on the basis of his team's further progression. Has enjoyed a fine season for club and country, though he was poor against Italy.

MANAGER

Cesare Prandelli, Italy: Whilst Vicente Del Bosque proved on Sunday that he is still very much the master when it comes to international football, his opposing number is deserving of greater credit in the short-term context of Euro 2012. He inherited a team that was regarded by many as the worst ever seen by Italians and entered this tournament on the back of a major crisis in the country's domestic leagues. However, the Azzuri defied the odds and reached the final playing a style of football that is far removed from the Italy of old. Their defining moment was the disposing of pre-tournament favourites Germany, courtsey of a brace from Mario Balotelli, who Prandelli has placed his faith in since he took the job, despite the controversy that surrounds the young striker. With Serie A likely to be altered greatly as a result of the current scandal engulfing it, and conscious changes being made at clubs such as Inter Milan to place more emphasis on youth development, the long term future looks emminently brighter for the Italian game than the short term does.

With the more traditional reviews now being done, allow me to turn my attention to a few other 'awards', some which are admittedly more positive than others...

GOAL OF THE TOURNAMENT

1. Zlatan Ibrahimovic v France...Does anybody still think this guy is overrated?!? A strike as good any seen in recent years. Shame it came too late for the Swedes, who never recovered from a stinker against Ukraine in their opening game.

2. Jakub Blaszczykowski v Russia...Poland were one of the big disappointments of the tournament, though perhaps my initial enthusiasm about their prospects was a little misguided, given they were the lowest ranked team at Euro 2012. Still, this wonderful strike from the Borussia Dortmund midfielder gave their fans something to cherish.

3. Andrea Pirlo v Croatia...The only direct free kick scored at the tournament, it provides a fitting summary of Pirlo's class.

4. Andy Carroll v Sweden...Euro 2012 saw the most headed goals scored of any European Championship, and this was without doubt the best of the lot. A fantastic cross from deep by Gerrard was met with aplomb by the Liverpool striker, who was criminally under-used after this match.

5. Mario Balotelli's 2nd v Germany...A fantastic long range pass from Montolivo was controlled expertly by Balotelli, who then finished (and celebrated) in true style.  

BEST GAME(S) OF THE TOURNAMENT

1. Germany 1 Italy 2: The moment when Prandelli's Renaissance methods bore fruition, with Mad Mario repaying the faith shown in him by his manager.

2. Spain 4 Italy 0: Boring, boring Spain? Come off it.

3. England 3 Sweden 2: The archetypal 'England at an international tournament' performance. Go ahead, concede two bizarre goals, and then score two outstanding late strikes to win the match.

4. Denmark 2 Portugal 3: The game where Ronaldo hit everything but the goal...alas, his teammates spared his blushes as Paulo Bento's side triumphed in the face of Danish defiance.

5. Germany 4 Greece 2: Joachim Low's side show glimpses of what could have been whilst also stunning all by allowing Giorgos Samaras to score.

WORST GAME OF THE TOURNAMENT

England 0 Italy 0 (Italy win 4-2 on penalties): Need I say anymore?!? 

WORST PLAYER(S) OF THE TOURNAMENT

1. Kostas Chalkias/Michalis Sifakis: This hapless pair of Greek goalkeepers will be remembered more for their inability to hold the ball than their ability to keep it out of the net. Useless.

2. The entire Republic of Ireland team: Escaping Group C was always going to be a tough ask for Giovanni Trapattoni's men, but to equal the record for most goals conceded in the group stage of the tournament was an unexpected outcome for a team previously regarded for their defensive strength.

3. Aleksandr Kerzhakov: The Russian striker somehow transpired to hit everything but the back of the net, failing to register a shot on target in his country's three group games. Milan Baros ought to be thankful for Kerzhakov's futility, otherwise he'd have definitely made the list.

WORST MANAGER(S) OF THE TOURNAMENT:

1. Bert van Marwijck: The Dutch qualified for the Euros with aplomb, scoring more goals than any other team. However, their manager couldn't seem to resist the allure of his son-in-law Mark van Bommell, allowing him to trudge around the midfield for their first two games whilst their more adventorous opponents duly took advantage.

2. Franciszek Smuda: The Poland manager didn't seem to grasp the concept of the advantage of being a host nation, preferring to play for the draw rather than build on the support offered by the Polish fans. His team duly crashed out at the group stage, conspiring to finish below the less than considerable might of the Czech Republic and Greece.

3. Giovanni Trapattoni: The Ireland manager has a penchant for defensive organisation, and up until now it has served him well. At the Euros, however, Ireland seemed unable to play to their strengths and the conservatism of their Italian leader meant they offered very little variation when in a losing position. The decision to ostrachise James McClean was particularly baffling. 

UNLUCKIEST PLAYER OF THE TOURNAMENT

1. Alan Dzagoev, Russia: At first my sympathy went to the CSKA Moscow schemer because many of our television experts didn't seem to know who he was, despite his considerable reputation throughout European football. But when his country somehow transpired to lose to Greece and subsequently get eliminated at the group stage, denying him the chance to add to the three goals he'd already scored, my sympathy got a whole lot stronger. A real talent who deserved better.

2. Steven Gerrard, England: Was more like his old self as he patrolled a midfield that spent more time chasing the ball than having it at their feet. Spoke frankly of his disappointment after the defeat to Italy, a nation breathed a collective sigh of relief when he declared his intention to play on to the next World Cup.

3. Giorgos Karagounis, Greece: One of few Greek players with any real attacking ability, the midfielder enjoyed a fine game in the decisive victory over Russia. However, a (wrongful) booking meant he missed the quarter final tie against Germany, an outcome that will likely deny him the opportunity of playing in an international knock-out tie again.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT OF THE TOURNAMENT

Considering the Irish aren't unfamiliar with failure on the international stage, this booby prize has to go to the Netherlands. Deemed by many as favourites heading into Euro 2012, Bert Van Marwijck's team looked like anything but potential winners. Their defending was atrocious and the egos of some of their more reputable players (step forward Arjen Robben) seemed to us at home to be out of control. Winless in three group games, the Dutch sulked home earlier than expected and the silver fox in the dugout duly resigned. A dishonourable mention should also go to the French, who spectacularly failed to turn up both against Sweden and (more importantly) against Spain.

And finally...

BEST TV COVERAGE

Were it not for Adrian Chiles, Clive Tyldesley and the scary wooden puppets in the opening credits, ITV would be a shoe-in for this. Yet they cannot escape an insatiable thirst for all things stupid and that's probably why a mere 2.3 million elected to watch their coverage compared to the 13.4 million who tuned into Gary Lineker and co. Big Ears for the win...but please, please get Mark Lawrenson out of the commentary booth. Depressing doesn't cover it!

So that concludes my summary of Euro 2012...it's taken me at least two hours, so I hope I haven't missed anything. Feel free, as ever, to give me some feedback either via Facebook or Twitter (@benrasmin) as it's much appreciated. Here's to the most enjoyable international tournament in at least eight years and fingers crossed for a similarly exciting Olympics. Or maybe not...







      



And Then There Were Four...

The 2012 European Championships are in their final embers and it would seem, from an English perspective at least, that normal order has been resumed. England are out on penalties, the only saving grace being that their exit came at the hands of a player as majestic as Andrea Pirlo and not Portugal's goalkeeper. So with Roy's boys checking out with Czech Republic, Greece and France the competition is down to four teams; the Ronaldo-centric Portugal, holders Spain, Joachim Low's vibrant Germany and England's quarter-final conquerors Italy. Need I remind you that this outcome was predicted in my last post? I do? Well, it was. Honestly...

That being said, the quarter-final ties were not exactly difficult to forecast. Portugal and Germany's opponents were always likely to be up against it, whereas France and England failed to really contend their fixtures, the latter being flattered by the need of a penalty shootout to settle such a distinctly one-sided contest. Indeed, the four teams that are left in the competition deserve to be there not just due to their successes in the previous round, but also because they are the four best teams left in the competition. As heart-warming as it is when an underdog triumphs against the odds (step forward Chelsea), the prospect of a Greece v England semi-final doesn't capture the imagination in the same way these four remaining ties do. So what will the outcome be? Will we get the Spain/Germany final that most of us are so eager to see? Surely neither Portugal or Italy can stop these two fantastic sides contesting the final? Well, it may not be that simple...

PORTUGAL V SPAIN

Portugal suffered a narrow Round of 16 defeat to Spain in the 2010 World Cup, and that defeat will still register with many of their current squad. The Portugese still lean heavily on their talisman Cristiano Ronaldo, who remains the one player that is capable of capturing the imagination of the Portugese public, his performances in their last two fixtures giving credence to their belief that this could be his year to deliver on the international stage. However, he will have to reach a standard that has so far eluded him when donning the national team strip to conquer a Spanish side that remains beyond adequate description.
No superlative can do justice to Vicente Del Bosque's side, and the criticism leveled at them during this tournament suggests an inadequacy in the standards of reporting rather than any defect in their squad. Granted, the victory over France was not always enthralling, but that was predominately due to the performance of Laurent Blanc's team, who were disappointing in the extreme. The main accusation being made against them is that they have become boring, that they no longer excite in the manner they did in 2008. Whilst they are far from droll, Spain have admittedly had to readjust their approach due to the absence of  David Villa. Fernando Torres has done his bit when required, scoring twice against the Irish, but it is fair to say that he is not currently the attacking prospect that he was four years ago. As a consequence, Del Bosque has often elected to play without a recognized centre forward, a tactic that few people seem able to get their head around. The reasons why evade me...Spain's movement off the ball and the near telepathic understanding shared amongst their players means that they can afford to play without a traditional number 9. Those looking for evidence need look no further than Cesc Fabregas's two strikes at the tournament thus far and the brace scored by Xabi Alonso in their most recent triumph. The technical ability of their six regular midfielders means that they are all, with the exception of the more practical Sergio Busquets, able to provide a threat in and around the penalty area. This is a threat that Portugal will have to annul if they are to reach their first tournament final in 8 years.
Many will believe this is a task beyond Bento's team, considering they remain heavily reliant on one players for goals. But when that player is the world's most expensive, you have to credit the Portugese with a chance of toppling the Spanish. This is because the threat offered by Ronaldo is one that stretches to all areas of the final third. Take, for example, his goal against the Czechs; a diagonal run across the full back and bullet header capable of beating even the most gifted of keepers. Or his second goal against the Dutch, where he started and duly finished a swift Portugese counter-attack. Indeed, the key word in that last sentence was that most familiar of football tactics, the counter-attack, as it constitutes the crux of Portugal's attacking threat. Bento sets his team up to sit behind the ball and to frustrate their opponents and then to break rapidly down the wings when in possession. This is a game plan that has come to favour their captain, especially now that he is no longer being restricted in the wide positions. Against Spain, Portugal are likely to keep a narrow shape in the hope of pushing their opponents into the wide positions, an area in which they lack a recognized threat. This is not to say that Andres Iniesta and David Silva should be left to their own devices if they are selected, rather that they rarely elect to cross the ball when in possession, a tactic favored by Spain's full backs. Portugal will feel confident about defending against the high ball, especially considering the impressive form of their two centre backs in their games thus far. With one of their three midfielders often dropping deep to win the loose ball, they will then look to Joao Moutinho (another impressive performer at this tournament) to release either Ronaldo or Nani out wide, players that are capable of unsettling a Spanish defence that has not always looked comfortable when being ran at.
If Portugal can curb the attacking instincts of their two full backs, who will be required to maintain a consistent shape in defence, then they have a chance of stifling Spain. That being said, goalkeeper Rui Patricio remains a concern for some, and Spain are likely to try and test him in the early stages of the game. My main concern for Spain is their ability to stay on top throughout the 90 minutes, they were at times uncharacteristically sloppy against France and this suggests to me that some of their key players are feeling the effect of a long season for both club and country. Portugal are a relatively young side that are capable of working the opposition right until the final whistle, and it is for that reason I can see them getting an opportunity to attack (albeit infrequently) against Spain. With Ronaldo firing on all cylinders, this may suggest a more testing afternoon for Iker Casillas and co than they experienced last time out.

PREDICTION: Portugal win

GERMANY V ITALY

If Spain have been 'boring' at Euro 2012, no such comment can be made against Germany, who have regularly impressed their audiences with their attacking forays. the most remarkable thing about their game against Greece was that they conspired to concede two goals, despite dominating 99% of the contest. Joachim Low has set his team up to play high up the field, a strategy that suggests they are confident of out-scoring any team they come up against. With a wealth of attacking talent at their disposal, it is hard to argue against this sentiment. After Greece's equaliser, Germany scored three goals in 19 minutes, ample proof that they are the most potent attacking force left in the competition.
However, they are coming up against an Italy team that has conceded only twice and will be high on confidence after their dramatic victory over England. Cesare Prandelli has fashioned a side that has done much to restore some pride in Italian football after their domestic league was yet again ravaged by scandal, and for that he deserves a great amount of credit. Prandelli appears to be both practical and ambitious; after the England game, he spoke little of celebration but rather of aspiration, stating that celebrations would only be indulged when his team had won a trophy. This is a mentality that has quickly spread amongst members of the Italian squad and was personified so succinctly by Andrea Pirlo's audacious chipped penalty in Sunday night's shootout. Italy will not fear Germany, which suggests a fascinating game is ahead of us.
The current Italian team is doing much to shed the stereotypes attached to the DNA of football in their country, those being that 'Calcio' constitutes the prioritization of defensive organization over ball retention and attacking play. Whilst Italy remain an organized outfit under Prandelli, they now afford more time to their passing game and offer a more loosely defined role to their midfielders and forwards. An example of this is the prominence of Antonio Cassano in the starting eleven, a player previously seen as a luxury by Azzuri managers. Under Prandelli, the Milan striker has been allowed to play his natural game, which is to often drop deep and roam around the attacking third. Cassano's vision is indulged by the selection of either Mario Balotelli or Antonio Di Natale alongside him, strikers who are capable of making incisive runs beyond Cassano, who will then seek to find them with the through ball. Claudio Marchisio and Andrea Pirlo are also evidence that Prandelli is seeking to assemble a team that is flexible when attacking the opposition. Both players often occupy variables areas of the midfield, making them difficult to mark, a reality that dawned on Wayne Rooney far too late into Sunday's fixture. Pirlo, in particular, appears to be relishing his Indian summer and is likely to be decisive when it comes to Italy's chances of making the July 1st final.
If Italy's off-the-ball trends are difficult to defend against, then the German's are almost impossible to counter. Low has gradually encouraged his team to become more confident when providing an option for the man in possession, and this has seen almost every outfield player adopt an attacking mentality. At times against Greece, goalkeeper Manuel Neur would find himself closer to his halfway line than the goal, so high was the area being occupied by his defence. The emergence of Mats Hummels at Euro 2012 is demonstrative of the evolution of the Germany side, his confidence on the ball allowing him to be just as prominent going forward as he is when defending. Whilst this makes the Germans vulnerable when they lose possession, the presence of Neur in between the sticks means that they can be confident of keeping the opposition at bay. That being said, if Greece found the net against them twice, then Italy will surely fancy their chances of punishing any mistakes committed. Bastian Schweinsteiger will for this reason have to be more prudent in possession than he was on Friday evening if Germany wish to avoid any such castigation.
What swings the favour away from the Italians is the inconsistency of their attack; Cassano only returned to full fitness in April, Di Natale seldom starts and Balotelli remains frustratingly unpredictable. Against a team of Germany's class, you have to be able to rely on your attacking players to make the most of any opportunity they get, and the Italians inability to see off England over 120 minutes suggests that they may not be able to place such trust in their current crop of strikers. Die Mannschaft, on the other hand, will be more than sure that they can make the most of their chances, which are likely to be in higher supply than for their counterparts. For that reason alone, I expect Italy's Euro adventure to come to an end in this game. If that is the case, their heads should be held upwards rather than towards the ground, as they have defied many people's expectations at this tournament and have set a sound foundation for the future.

PREDICTION: Germany win

So folks, that would leave us anticipating a Portugal/Germany showdown on Sunday night...can Ronaldo put his demons to rest and fire his nation to glory? Or will Germany appease many people's pre-tournament forecast and lift their first trophy in 16 years? I'll be back to give my verdict on the game and the tournament as a whole next week. For the meanwhile, here's to two thoroughly entertaining semi-final games. Fingers crossed...

@benrasmin


   

Euro 2012...What Next?

The group stage of the 2012 European Championships concluded on Tuesday night with England registering a second consecutive victory, one which secured them top spot in Group D. If that reality is not an indication of the unpredictability of these championships, then the premature exit of pre-tournament favourites the Netherlands may well be. Either that or the unfancied duo of Czech Republic and Greece managing to escape Group A at the expense of Russia and co-hosts Poland. Yes, Euro 2012 has already provided plenty of shocks...but the most pleasing aspect of the tournament for me thus far has been the willingness of almost every side to play for the win, bringing an end to the negative 'avoid defeat at all costs' mentality that marred the 2010 World Cup. This positive alteration has meant that some of my forecasts for the group stage have not been altogether prophetic, but I'm willing to put my neck on the line and make my predictions for the quarter finals. Here goes...

Czech Republic v Portugal

The Czechs, along with the Dutch, are the side primarily responsible for spoiling my pre-tournament predictions. Rather than finishing bottom of Group A (a scenario that looked more than likely after their heavy defeat to Russia), they finished the group in top spot and subsequently set up a quarter-final tie against the perpetual 'nearly men' of the European Championships, Portugal. Michal Bilek deserves credit for the way he picked up his charges after their opening day capitulation, but he will know he faces a challenge to progress beyond this point. After their unfortunate defeat to Germany, Portugal have thrown off the shackles and made the most of their attacking talent, securing wins over both Denmark and the Netherlands to finish runners-up in Group B. Their marked improvement from their rigid performance against the Germans has largely been down to the arrival of Cristiano Ronaldo, who is finally threatening to recreate his club form at a major international tournament. After his deveastating performance against the Dutch, Ronaldo is likely to trouble a Czech defence that looks vulnerable. With Milan Baros also misfiring up front, Bilek's side will rely on the energy of their midfielders but it is likely that they will be given short shrift by Portugal's impressive midfield trio of Meireles, Moutinho and Veloso and the pairing of Bruno Alves and Pepe in defence. This being said, Paulo Bento's are often slow out of the traps so the onus will be on the Czech's to make it difficult for them from the onset, a task which will be made easier if talisman Tomas Rosicky is passed fit to play. As if often the case with these sort of ties, it is likely to be a lot tighter than most will expect, but I still expect Portugal's forwards to be the decisive factor.

PREDICTION: Portugal win

Germany v Greece

Many will see this as the mis-match of the knockout stages, given Greece's penchant for results-driven football. They registered the lowest amount of shots on goal in the group stage, yet still progressed at the expense of a Russia side blessed with attacking talent and a Poland team spearheaded by one of the most promising strikers on the continent in Robert Lewandowski. This goes to show that the Greeks cannot be underestimated, and that this tie may not be as straightforward as it is expected to be. For all their talent, the Germans have not hit full stride at this tournament so far and a slow start against the Greeks could make for a frustrating evening for Joachim Low's men. That being said, Germany have still registered three wins out of three, which suggests that they have adopted the sort of winning mentality needed to succeed on the international stage. Mario Gomez is looking forebodingly good at the top of the German attack, and the young defender Mats Hummels has marshalled the defence superbly thus far. Greece will miss captain Giorgous Karagounis, who is suspended, and their midfield will lose much of its attacking drive in his absence. They will hope to get in behind their opponent's full backs, where the likes of Dimitris Salpigidis can provide an attacking threat, but they will know that Phillip Lahm and Jerome Boateng (or Lars Bender for that matter) are more than competent at quelling any such threat. This may be the game where things 'click' for the Germans, and if it is, then the other teams remaining in the tournament should take note. 

PREDICTION: Germany win  

Spain v France

The French have been, in my estimation, one of the most disappointing sides at the tournament thus far. Against England they flattered to deceive and they squandered the chance to top Group B by failing to turn up against a Sweden side that had already been eliminated. Their just reward is a quarter final tie against the European and World Champions. Spain, much like the Germans, have failed to reach their peak thus far...they were frustrated by Italy in their opening game, and were fortunate to beat Croatia in their final fixture. Nonetheless, they still won Group C by two points and will head into this game feeling confident that they can expose an average French backline. Laurent Blanc must have been frustrated by the deficiencies displayed by his defence in their final group game, and he will know that these problems need to be addressed speedily if they are to stand a chance of progressing further in this tournament. One crumb of comfort for France is that their forward line could well trouble a Spain defence that looked penetrable during the group stages, though they will need to improve the supply afforded to Karim Benzema, who has cut a frustrated figure thus far. The solution may well be to introduce Arsenal-bound Olivier Giroud to partner Benzema, in the hope that the Ligue 1 top scorer can 'bully' Spain's back-line in the way that Didier Drogba harried Barcelona's defence in the Champions League semi-finals. Vicente Del Bosque, on the other hand, will have to consider whether to persist with Andres Iniesta and David Silva in the wide positions or to introduce a more conventional winger (Jesus Navas) to add more variety to Spain's attack, a conundrum that most international managers dream of. Either way, it is hard to see past a Spain victory in this tie, though you would hope that the French will at least make it difficult for them, a task which is by no means beyond them.

PREDICTION: Spain win

England v Italy

Of all the quarter-final ties, this is the most difficult to call. England have been superb so far under the wily management of Roy Hodgson, and the Italians have been equally impressive in the face of adversity back home. Both sides adopt a patient approach, though they contrast in the way in which they attack the opposition. England have been more direct under Hodgson, particularly when Andy Carroll is in the side, whereas Italy tend to play a possession game before picking holes in their opponent's defence. Andrea Pirlo is the master of this particular art, with few players being able to rival his range of passing or his vision. Claudio Marchisio has also caught the eye during the group stages and Daniele De Rossi promises commitment whether he is elected to play in midfield or defence. The absence of Giorgio Chiellini will be good news to England, though, with the Juventus man enjoying a solid tournament up until the injury he sustained against the Republic of Ireland. England are riding a wave of momentum after topping Group D and will go into this tie knowing that they are more than a match for the Italians, particularly now that Wayne Rooney is available for selection once more. The Manchester United striker wasn't at his best against Ukraine, but still grabbed the winning goal and linked up nicely with club colleague Danny Welbeck, who has been vital for the Three Lions thus far. Steven Gerrard has rose to the challenge of captaining the side, and he could well be the key player on Sunday, given the quality of his delivery from both open play and dead ball situations. My main fear for England is that the defence is still guilty of affording the opposition space to run into, which often means they rely on last-ditch tackles to cut out goalscoring chances. With Italy possessing three dangerous centre forwards as well as an impressive midfield, England will need to keep a tighter shape and try and push their opposition into wider areas. Ultimately, I can see this tie heading into extra-time and being decided by one goal, given the tactical acumen of both Hodgson and Cesare Prandelli. Regardless of who is eliminated, both men should be happy about their achievements in the tournament and should look to the 2014 World Cup with plenty of confidence.

PREDICTION: (Narrow) Italy win 

So, if my that's anything to go by, the semi-finals will be...

Portugal v Spain

Germany v Italy

This means there is a possibility of a replay of the 2008 final between Spain and Germany, a contest which will leave most of us more than a little excited. But the 2011/12 Champions League season has shown us that just about anything can happen in football, so it would be foolish to discount the chances of Italy and Portugal pulling off an upset. After all, if Cristiano Ronaldo continues his upward trajectory then this could well be his year to finally shake off the shackles that has halted his international career to date. The Italians, on the other hand, will look to their 2006 triumph for inspiration, that being the year when international success came as a remedy to the problems engulfing their domestic league. Either way, it should be an exciting week or so of football. I'll be back to make my predictions for the semi-finals and the final in due course...

@benrasmin

Lilywhites Wilting

Last Wednesday saw the culmination of Harry Redknapp's four year tenure as Tottenham Hotspur manager, the 65 year old being handed his P45 despite guiding the club to fourth place, a position which would usually result in qualification for the Champions League. Chelsea's unlikely triumph in that competition deprived Spurs of a second crack at Europe's premier competition, their last foray resulting in a quarter-final defeat at the hands of Real Madrid. Whether this unfortunate twist of fate was what deprived Redknapp of the opportunity to continue in charge at White Hart Lane is still uncertain, but in my opinion it is the least of the club's worries.

The 2011/12 season is likely to be looked upon by Spurs supporters as a missed opportunity; after scaling the table to the heady heights of third place, a dramatic loss of form saw them scrape to fourth place on the final day of the season. In many ways, last term's events at White Hart Lane was characteristic of the season as a whole...the early season proliferation of the traditional 'big four', only for (Liverpool aside) normal order to be resumed in the final throes of the season. Many critics and fans alike were captivated by the Lilywhite's start to the season, with Redknapp's team showing an impressive commitment to attacking football. Luka Modric and Gareth Bale were once again the key performers, but the summer acquisitions of Emmanuel Adebayor and Scott Parker also proved to be crucial in providing an extra axis to Spurs' play. Praise was also bestowed upon Redknapp for the form of ex fringe players such as Younes Kaboul and Kyle Walker, the manager being credited for revitalising a club that has so often threatened to join the elite without ever making good on their promise. But, as is the way with the Premier League, a crisis was never far around the corner...

Redknapp's tax trials threw immediate uncertainty on the issue of his future at the club and even when he emerged from court victorious, you sensed that things were not going to be quite the same when he resumed work. The bizarre coincidence of Fabio Capello's resignation from the England job provided further fuel for the flames that were beginning to embellish 'Arry's stewardship at the Lane. For months, questions were fielded regarding the seeming inevitability of his appointment as Capello's replacement, with Redknapp doing very little to quash suggestions that he was prepared to take the job. All the while, Spurs league season began to unravel in truly horrific style, the lowest ebb being their 5-2 capitulation at the Emirates Stadium in a fixture which handed the initiative to their North London rivals in the race for European qualification. A quiet January transfer window (only Ryan Nelson and Louis Saha arrived) also provided further inclination that all was no longer well in the corridors of White Hart Lane.

Nonetheless, the dismissal of Redknapp still came as a major shock to followers of the game, especially seeing as there was only 12 months remaining on his existing contract at the club. Many would have expected to see him see out a final term in charge before stepping down for a younger model, with his coach Tim Sherwood seeming an ideal candidate to continue the impressive work of the last four years. Football is, however, the most ruthless of all sports and we should perhaps not have been totally overawed by chairman Daniel Levy's course of action...after all, he's not been afraid of sacking managers in the past. Just ask Martin Jol. Ultimately, what will concern Spurs devotees is the answer to one question...where do we go now?

Reports in the press appear to suggest that Levy will ignore clamours for David Moyes to be approached and instead attempt to convince axed Chelsea chief Andre Villas Boas to return to English football. This should not surprise anybody. Despite his problems at Stamford Bridge, Villas Boas remains a very promising coach and, given his age, one of the most impressive possibilities available to Tottenham. But it is unlikely that any move for AVB will coincide with a continuation of Redknapp's sterling work at the club, at least not when we consider that the Portugese is likely to want to bring his own staff (both on and off the field) along with him. Can Spurs afford a summer of turnover? When you consider the inroads that their rivals are likely to, and in some cases already have, taken then the answer is surely no.

Questions also remain about whether the key performers of the last two to three years can be convinced to endure another campaign in the undesired Europa League at the expense of Champions League football elsewhere. It is no secret that both Luka Modric and Gareth Bale have admirers at some of Europe's premier clubs, and it is hard to see why they should resist the advances of such clubs to stay at Spurs, other than a moral commitment to honour their long term contracts. The likely retirement of Ledley King will also leave a gaping hole in a defence that struggled in the latter part of the season. Indeed, the absence of a player like King is not one that can be remedied merely by a bit of savy in the transfer market, not when you consider how vital a role King has played at the club over the past fourteen years. These are the sort of conundrums the new managerial incumbent is going to have to face, and the answers do not appear to be as clear cut as they would hope.

All this seems to bode for a difficult 2012/13 for the Lilywhites and raises questions about Levy's judgement in deciding to rid himself of one of the most experienced coaches in the history of top-flight football in this country. However, the Premier League is an unusual arena and Spurs would not be the first club to find triumph in the face of uncertainty, which suggests that they could perhaps find more solace in Chelsea's underdog story than they first envisaged. Then again, maybe not...

Moving On Up?

With the European Championships now well under way (a fantastic start for England included), the transfers, if you will, of Norwich's Paul Lambert and Swansea's Brendan Rodgers to Aston Villa and Liverpool respectively have perhaps fallen under the radar. Both men are unlikely to have a problem with that, considering the usual fervour that is afforded to any new managerial appointment in the Premier League. Rather, it will provide an opportunity for them to collect their thoughts and begin to devise a plan to revive the fortunes of two of the most famous clubs in the country. But were Lambert and Rodgers right to depart the clubs they had steered into the top flight in such style?

On paper, you would have to say 'yes' both times. Norwich and Swansea are admirable clubs who conducted themselves last season in an admirable fashion, refusing to depart from their commitment to attractive, attacking football. But as we all should know by now, football is not played on paper. Both men have jumped out of the cooler and into the frying pan, by which I mean they have left clubs where they were viewed as all but infallible for a much more intense and pressurised atmosphere. Aston Villa and Liverpool both enjoy decorated histories and as a consequence their very names hold a great amount of prestige, especially in the case of the latter. Any manager employed by them is expected to deliver success, and history will tell you that neither club is particularly patient. Lambert is the ninth manager in Villa's Premier League history, and Rodgers is the seventh man charged with the task of bringing the good times back to Anfield. If history counts for anything, it's fair to say that both men are going to have to hit the ground running when the 2012/13 season gets underway.

In the case of Rodgers, one factor working in the former Chelsea coach's favour is that he will not be working in the shadow of Kenny Dalglish, easily the most cherished figure in the Red's history. Whilst most supporters were disappointed to see the King removed as manager at the end of last season, even the most rose-tinted of the Anfield faithful will admit that Dalglish's second spell in charge was full of flaws. Rarely did he look at ease with the demands of the modern game, particularly when in front of the press, a claim that is backed up primarily (but not solely) by his ill-advised handling of the Luis Suarez race row. For this reason, his replacement is unlikely to have to deal with the sort of inanity that befell Roy Hodgson when he pipped Dalglish to the manager's job in the summer of 2010. The England manager was never able to get his feet under the table at Anfield, largely due to the considerably looming presence of the ultimate Kop icon in the corridors of power. Now that the spectre that blighted Hodgson's tenure has proved himself to be ill-suited to the demands of the Premier League, Rodgers will have a blank canvas to work from on.

But that's not to say that the early days of his tenure will be a bed of roses. Rodgers' Swansea team played to a clear set of principles, the main one being to frustrate the opposition via the means of an efficient, well-drilled passing game. However, the Swans were not always the most enterprising in front of goal during their debut campaign in England's top flight, evidenced by their tally of 44 goals, less than the amount scored by relegated Blackburn and Bolton. The Liverpool faithful will expect much more, but Rodgers may struggle to deliver with a team that scored only three more goals than his Swansea charges and were heavily reliant on the aforementioned Suarez, who scored 8 more goals last term than second highest goalscorer Steven Gerrard. Andy Carroll will be expected to improve in the final third, but the £35 million man is one of many players at the club who seemed to suffer a crisis of confidence last season. As a result, Rodgers' first task may be to lift the spirits of the expensive recruits who struggled to perform in the famous red jersey. Certainly, it's hard to see a high influx of players entering the club before the problems embellishing the current crop are remedied.

This is not to say, however, that Rodgers has made a bad choice in moving to Liverpool. He has taken a calculated risk that is only dissimilar to the one he made when joining Reading from Watford due to the size of the clubs involved. The Ulsterman has always struck me as being a very calm figure who believes firmly in his own principles, and this is likely to serve him well when in the bowels of the Anfield pressure cooker. We can most likely expect a highly organised Liverpool side next term, one that is hard to breach and more than comfortable when in possession of the ball. Players such as Lucas and Daniel Agger are likely to relish such an approach, but it is hard to see how the more rough and ready likes of Carroll and Jay Spearing will take to such a patient and probing approach. Only time will tell...

Paul Lambert, on the other hand, may have raised more eyebrows in his decision to depart Norwich for Villa Park. This is not because Villa are by any means a small club, on the contrary, they are a far bigger club than the Canaries in terms of infrastructure and revenue. Rather, it is the lack of disparity in the quality of each club's squad of players that is likely to have caused some confusement amongst the nation's armchair pundits. Clearly, Lambert sees something in the Villans post that few others have seen since the heady days of Martin O'Neill's time in charge, when they scaled to heights not seen since Ron Atkinson's highly successful spell in charge. This foresight adequately reflects the measure of Lambert as a coach...highly motivated and fiercely ambitious. In just three years he turned Norwich on it's head, steering them out of the lower echelons of League One and back into the promised land of the Premier League. Villa supporters will hope to see a similar Midas effect worked on their club.

In just two years, the claret and blue faithful have seen a highly capable side disassembled whilst also having to endure the trigger finger of chairman Randy Lerner, who is now onto his third coach in just two years. What is left at the club is a considerable amount of depth and a playing squad that is probably equal in quality to the grim bunch collected by David O'Leary in his final term in charge. Last season, Alex McLeish's side registered the second lowest amount of goals scored and the highest amount conceded from set pieces. Attendances also fell to their lowest in some time (though an improvement has been registered since McLeish's dismissal) and the squad became even thinner with the departures of Carlos Cuellar, Brad Guzan and Emile Heskey. Every cloud though...

What Villa will be getting in Lambert is, on face value, exactly what they need. Much like O'Neill did on his arrival in 2006, the former Celtic skipper is likely to focus on improving the performance levels of the current squad whilst also taking the opportunity to inject a few new faces when the opportunity arises. However, unlike his former Hoops manager, Lambert is unlikely to be afforded the riches that saw the likes of Steve Sidwell and Nigel Reo-Coker purchased for hefty fees. Rather, the new man is most likely going to have to scour the lower leagues for some bargains, a course of action that is unfamiliar territory for any Villa manager. This change in values will however serve the club well. It will reinvigorate a crowd that is tired of watching over-paid, over-the-hill players trudge around the Villa Park pitch and it will also challenge the club to change its values. Rather than dine with the Premier League prawn sandwich brigade, Villa will be tucking into a dirty kebab and playing to their own tune, signalling an end to the days of big contracts and big transfer fees.

Let's not forget either that Lambert will be inheriting some players of genuine quality...Charles N'Zogbia still has much to prove in claret and blue, Darren Bent remains one of the best finishers in the league and Shay Given is one of the finest keepers in the competition's 20 year history. Take into account the quality of some of Villa's academy graduates and you can see that there is a nucleus, albeit a fleeting one, for something of considerable measure which explains why Lambert was tempted away from Carrow Road. This is not to say, though, that there will be a radical change overnight. Lambert's first brief is likely to be to drag the club away from the Premier League trapdoor, something which he is more than capable of.

So, have two of the Premier League's brightest coaches made the right decision? As always, matters on the field (and perhaps off it) will ultimately answer that question. One thing is for certain though...they both have much to do.



Euro 2012 Preview

The 2012 European Championships are just 11 days away and, naturally, fans of the 16 participating nations are biting their nails in anticipation. What will the summer hold for their team? Who will triumph in the Kiev final on July 1st? Who will suffer the ignominy of an early exit? Ponder no more friends, because I am about to cast my well-trained eye over every team that finds themselves on the road to Poland and Ukraine, forecasting their fate with the precision of a Bastian Schweinsteiger penalty kick. Enjoy...

GROUP A

 

POLAND

The co-hosts are participating in only their second European Championships, having endured a swift exit last time around. However, Poland have lost just two (to France and Italy respectively) of their last 11 friendlies, meaning they head into the tournament in good form. Take into account also the benefits of home support and their placement in the tournament's least menacing group and you would be forgiven for thinking that the Poles have a real chance of reaching the quarter-finals. In Wojciech Szczesny they have a goalkeeper of real quality and further up the field Jakub Blaszczykowski and Robert Lewandowski have enjoyed successful seasons with Bundesliga champions Borussia Dortmund. Whilst their qualification from the group is far from assured, Poland have a real opportunity to make home advantage account and a positive start against Greece should assure that.

RUSSIA  



Russia enjoyed a very successful tournament in 2008, reaching the semi-finals courtesy of an attractive, expansive brand of football orchestrated on the field by Andrey Arshavin and off the field by manager Guus Hiddink. Much has changed in four years, however, with Arshavin suffering a loss of form which has cost him his place in the Arsenal team (he is currently on loan at former club Zenit St Petersburg) and Hiddink long since replaced by former Rangers manager Dick Advocaat. The latest Dutch incumbent of the hotseat is much more pragmatic than his predecessor, evidenced by the Russians impressive concession of just four goals in ten qualifying matches. Indeed, the only thing that hasn't changed an awful lot from 2008 is the spine of the team, which still relies heavily on the same core of players, though youngster Alan Dzagoev offers some hope for the future. On paper, qualification for the knockout stages shouldn't be beyond the Russians but if the old guard fail to perform when it counts then they could well become the first big name casualties of the tournament.

GREECE

It seems an age since Greece's triumph in this competition back in 2004, and it's fair to say a similar outcome on July 1st is unlikely. That's not to say, however, that Greece will be there just to make up the numbers in what is a very open Group A. Following an early exit from the 2010 World Cup, the orchestrator of this nation's finest sporting moment, Otto Rehhagel, made way for Portugese coach Fernando Santos. Having enjoyed success in the country's domestic league, Santos is a good fit for the national side and has made them difficult to beat, guiding them through qualification without defeat. Kyriakos Papadopoulos and Ioannis Fetfazidis are exciting prospects whilst veterans Giorgos Karagounis and Kostas Katsouranis provide a link to the squad that triumphed over the odds in Portugal. If Russia stutter, then the Greeks could take advantage, but much depends on how they start against Poland on June 8th.

CZECH REPUBLIC

The Czechs will approach the tournament thankful that they have been pitted in a group that presents them with the opportunity of qualifying, but they will have to work hard to assure that they do. They qualified for the tournament unconvincingly but recovered in ample time to sweep aside Montenegro in their play-off decider. Coach Michal Bilek will be under pressure from the off if they do not secure a positive result against Russia, and that might make for an uncomfortable tournament for his players. However, Tomas Rosicky's revival at Arsenal and Milan Baros's form for Galatasaray provides some hope, as does the defensive strength offered by goalkeeper Petr Cech and centre-back pairing Roman Hubnik and Tomas Sivok. Still, I fear it's a case of quarter-finals at best for the Czechs, given they are unlikely to top the group.

PREDICTION

1. Poland

2. Russia

3. Greece

4. Czech Republic

GROUP B

 

HOLLAND

 

The Oranje are one of the pre-tournament favourites and considering they reached the 2010 World Cup final and were the highest scorers in qualifying, they have every right to be considered as such. They are blessed with remarkable strength in attack, with both Robin Van Persie and Klaas Jan Huntelaar in stellar form for their clubs this season. Arjen Robben also endured a fine campaign for Bayern Munich and despite a difficult term with Inter, Wesley Sneijder remains one of the premiere midfielders on the continent. However, life is not a complete bed of roses for the Dutch, as defensive deficiencies and off-the-field disputes about the style of play (sparked by that performance in the aforementioned final) threaten to derail the ambitions for this summer. Bert van Marwijk has altered his system to accommodate a more attractive style, but that may be at the risk of exposing a defence that does not measure up to that of their major tournament rivals. Johnny Heitinga has enjoyed a fine season for Everton but regular partner Joris Mathijsen has struggled at Malaga, whilst doubts remain over left back Eric Pieters. Nonetheless, Holland should still escape Group B, especially considering their first match pits them against potential whipping boys Denmark. The semi-finals are then a real possibility, where the exploits in South Africa may prove decisive in deciding whether the Dutch can make it two major tournament finals in a row.

GERMANY

Runners-up in 2008 and beaten semi-finalists in the World Cup, Germany are largely expected to make it third time lucky and win the European Championships this summer. The reasons why are clear to see; they boast a young and vibrant team that has grown together under coach Joachim Low over the past four years. Mesut Ozil is very much the engine of the side, as he proved so devastatingly against England and Argentina during Germany's World Cup campaign. Thomas Muller is still very much the key goal threat alongside veteran Miroslav Klose, whilst the Germans also possess great strength in depth with exciting talents such as Mario Gotze and Toni Kroos in reserve. However, one emerging fear for the Germans is the psychological damage that may have been inflicted on their Bayern Munich contingent (8 in total, including key players Neuer, Lahm, Boateng, Muller and Schweinsteiger) as a result of their Champions League final defeat. Many will cast their mind back to the Bayer Leverkusen side of 2002 that endured three near-misses in club competitions, coinciding with the national team's comfortable defeat to Brazil in the World Cup final. This may yet prove to be trivial, however, and there is no doubt the Germans are serious contenders to lift the trophy come the end of the tournament.

PORTUGAL

Portugal will be looking to channel the spirit of Euro 2000, when they got out of a group containing both England and Germany. The chances of qualification at the expense of the latter may be a lot less likely this time around, but the Portugese should not be entirely discounted. Manager Paulo Bento, the youngest coach at the tournament, is inexperienced in comparison to his adversaries but has done much to repair the damage done by Carlos Queiroz's dour reign as manager. Key players, namely Cristiano Ronaldo, have bought into his methods and qualification was assured (eventually) by a thumping 6-2 triumph over Bosnia & Herzegovina. The spine of the side has also endured considerable success over the past two seasons, with several Real Madrid players involved as well as players from former treble winners Porto. The high level of Bento's former charges at Sporting Lisbon also mean the squad will approach the tournament in a state of unity, which counts for much in these type of tournaments. However, this does not lessen the challenge they face in finishing ahead of either Holland or Germany, a feat which will require Ronaldo to be in his most devastating form.

DENMARK

Like Portugal, Denmark will seek to summon the spirit of past triumphs (1992) to achieve success in this group, but it is doubtful that even the likes of Schmeichel and co could do much to alter the Dane's fate. They are by no means a bad side, quite the contrary in fact. Coach Morten Olsen has been in the job for an impressive 12 years and has recently overseen a change in midfield, with more experienced players making way for the likes of William Kvist and Niki Zimling, adding more steel in the centre of the pitch. Christian Eriksen also offers them prodigious attacking talent and the general consensus is that he is ready to make an impact this summer, with the previous World Cup probably coming too soon for him. However, the squad lacks depth and is overly reliant on the inconsistent Nicklas Bendtner, with the attacking reserve providing little optimism. If defeat to Holland can be avoided in the opening game then the Danish support can dare to dream, but even then they will still have to hold their nerve against Portugal and Germany. Best of luck...



PREDICTION

1. Germany

2. Holland

3. Portugal

4. Denmark

 

GROUP C

 

SPAIN

Spain are on the cusp of greatness as they prepare to defend the European Championship, which they captured so gloriously in 2008. That success was of course followed by a first World Cup triumph, meaning that La Roja have an opportunity to make history in Poland and Ukraine by becoming the first team to successfully capture three international trophies in succession. Despite their obvious quality, doubts have arisen as to whether they can manage this most daunting of tasks. Key players such as Carlos Puyol and David Villa have been ruled out, whilst other significant figures (Gerard Pique, Pedro, Fernando Torres) are heading into the tournament out of sorts. Many of Spain's first team have also just endured gruelling domestic seasons in which they have played close to 60 games, particularly the Barcelona contingent. These reservations, however, mask the reality that new players have come to the fore since the triumph in South Africa. Players like Santi Cazorla, Fernando Llorente, Thiago, Javi Martinez will seek to establish themselves in the absence of the more senior figures, whilst the previously overlooked Juan Mata and David Silva will seek to finally gain recognition on the international stage. All this points to the Spanish once again being the team to beat, though they will have to be sure to be wary of the perils of finishing behind Italy in their group.

ITALY

Cesare Prandelli deserves much credit for his work thus far as Italy manager, doing much to banish the memory of their dismal effort at the World Cup. Younger players are beginning to become the basis of a country that has previously been over reliant on older heads, with the likes of Antonio Nocerino and Mario Balotelli establishing themselves as key components of the team. The senior figures that remain have been largely reinvigorated, with Andrea Pirlo having enjoyed a fine season for Juventus and Antonio Cassano enjoying a new lease of life at Milan, despite a health scare in November. The chances of an early exit akin to the one experienced in South Africa is unlikely as the team is generally more united now and has improved considerably in key areas such as ball retention and defensive organisation (they boasted the meanest defence in qualifying, conceding only two goals in ten games). Whilst they are unlikely to be contenders to win the tournament, Prandelli will hope to be competitive and reach the knockout stages as he seeks to mould the team into becoming an international force once again.

CROATIA

Croatia were desperately unlucky not to reach the semi-finals of the last European Championships, but their chances of bettering their quarter-final berth of four years ago look slim. Since the defeat to Turkey in 2008, the side has been on somewhat of a downward spiral and after six years at the helm, influential manager Slaven Bilic will leave his post at the end of the tournament. Whilst they still possess undoubted quality (Luka Modric, Niko Kranjcar, Mario Madzukic, Ivica Olic etc) they are now more vulnerable in defence due to the loss of anchorman Niko Kovac. Some of their top stars are also enduring poor seasons, with Kranjcar and Olic not even regulars at their club sides. The Croats will have to get off to a winning start against the Republic of Ireland and then hope they can match Italy if they are to escape the group, but few will fancy their chances.

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND



Giovanni Trapattoni is somewhat of a polarising figure amongst the Irish public, given his penchant for results-based football, but there is no denying the Italian deserves much credit for guiding the Republic to their first European Championships since 1988. Trapattoni seemed quick to realise the limited ability of the pool of players at his disposal, and thus was quick to go about the task of organising them into a unit that was hard to beat. They were not always convincing in qualifying, but made short work of Estonia in the deciding play-off game. The spine of their team is strong, with goalkeeper Shay Given and Richard Dunne key factors in the strength of their defence, whilst the attacking options are reasonably strong and variable, with Robbie Keane the undisputed starter. The inclusion of youngster James McClean shows that Trapattoni may be willing to take more risks than usual as he seeks to plot an escape out of a difficult group. A positive start against Croatia would create confidence and belief within the squad, but it cannot be denied that the Irish have been presented with a tough task.

PREDICTION

1. Spain

2. Italy

3. Republic of Ireland

4. Croatia

GROUP D

 

UKRAINE

As the joint hosts, Ukraine will also be hoping that home advantage can prove decisive in their quest to reach the knockout stages. However, their chances look slim at best, with the team looking average at best and without competitive football in two years. Coach Oleg Blokhin is an experienced figure who will ensure that Ukraine are at least organised, but he is their third coach in two years which points to an unstable infrastructure which may hinder their chances of on-the-field success. Andriy Shevchenko remains their attacking spearhead and midfielder Anatoliy Tymoshchuk remains a key figure also which suggests, with both players well over 30, a lack of development. Andriy Yarmolenko is a highly rated 22 year old but it is doubtful he will be decisive in the fate of his country; an early exit beckons.

ENGLAND



England begin a new era under Roy Hodgson at the European Championships and may well thrive in the absence of pre-tournament expectation. After the devastating World Cup defeat to Germany, confidence is low despite an impressive qualifying campaign under the now departed Fabio Capello. Hodgson has picked up the reigns in the quietest of fashions and has already demonstrated his pragmatism by showing his willingness to return to a basic 4-4-2 formation, with an emphasis on organisation and direct, purposeful attacking play. Whilst this may not wet the appetite of the Three Lions support, it is a necessary measure given the drop in quality the national team has endured over the past several years. Wayne Rooney is arguably the one remaining world-class talent, and with him suspended for the first two group games the aim will be to avoid defeat against France and Sweden and then seek to beat Ukraine in the final game. Defeat in the opening fixture could make things difficult but England have enough about them to ensure they qualify without too much trouble, which would leave them in the great unknown of the knockout phases. What happens then is anyone's guess...

FRANCE

Much has changed within the French national team set-up since the World Cup, and that's ignoring the dodgy choice of kit! Laurent Blanc was quick to make his mark on the team, dropping all 23 of the squad that was selected for South Africa, paving the way for a crop of younger players who have since established themselves as key components of the new-look Les Bleus. Though some of the banished players have returned (Franck Ribery, Patrice Evra etc) they are now sharing the dressing room with the likes of Adil Rami, Yann M'Villa and Karim Benzema. Blanc has done well to unite a team that was previously tore apart by egos, with the team now possessing the necessary blend of unity and quality. Benzema in particular looks set to enjoy a good tournament, having arrived off the back of a breakthrough season under Jose Mourinho at Real Madrid. They should top Group D, though reservations remain over their defence and the long term future of Blanc. If they progress beyond the quarter-finals then the French may sense that the time has come for them to triumph against the odds. How ironic that would be after the chaos of 2010...

SWEDEN





Neither France nor England will have been pleased to be drawn in the same group as perennial banana skin Sweden, and Erik Hamren's side will seek to disrupt the balance in Group D in their final two group games. Considering they start against Ukraine, victory against either England or France could see them spring a surprise and qualify for the quarter finals, a feat last achieved in 2004. If they are to do so, much will depend on which Zlatan Ibrahimovic turns up. The striker is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the planet but he often elects not to showcase his talents on the big stage. However, a recent tactical shuffle by Hamren has seen him occupy a more withdrawn role, allowing him to make the most of his vision and skill. Sweden have subsequently become a much more fluent side, especially with youngsters such as Ola Toivonen and Rasmus Elm becoming permanent fixtures in the squad. However, the team is as prone to inconsistencies as their mercurial captain Zlatan is, and they will have to be on form to escape a difficult group.

PREDICTION

1. France

2. England

3. Sweden

4. Ukraine

So there you have it, each team analysed in the most (un)thorough of manners. Surely there's nothing more you need to know? No...all that's left is to (try to) enjoy the football! I'll be posting my predictions for the knockout phases once the group stage is done and dusted.