And Then There Were Four...

The 2012 European Championships are in their final embers and it would seem, from an English perspective at least, that normal order has been resumed. England are out on penalties, the only saving grace being that their exit came at the hands of a player as majestic as Andrea Pirlo and not Portugal's goalkeeper. So with Roy's boys checking out with Czech Republic, Greece and France the competition is down to four teams; the Ronaldo-centric Portugal, holders Spain, Joachim Low's vibrant Germany and England's quarter-final conquerors Italy. Need I remind you that this outcome was predicted in my last post? I do? Well, it was. Honestly...

That being said, the quarter-final ties were not exactly difficult to forecast. Portugal and Germany's opponents were always likely to be up against it, whereas France and England failed to really contend their fixtures, the latter being flattered by the need of a penalty shootout to settle such a distinctly one-sided contest. Indeed, the four teams that are left in the competition deserve to be there not just due to their successes in the previous round, but also because they are the four best teams left in the competition. As heart-warming as it is when an underdog triumphs against the odds (step forward Chelsea), the prospect of a Greece v England semi-final doesn't capture the imagination in the same way these four remaining ties do. So what will the outcome be? Will we get the Spain/Germany final that most of us are so eager to see? Surely neither Portugal or Italy can stop these two fantastic sides contesting the final? Well, it may not be that simple...

PORTUGAL V SPAIN

Portugal suffered a narrow Round of 16 defeat to Spain in the 2010 World Cup, and that defeat will still register with many of their current squad. The Portugese still lean heavily on their talisman Cristiano Ronaldo, who remains the one player that is capable of capturing the imagination of the Portugese public, his performances in their last two fixtures giving credence to their belief that this could be his year to deliver on the international stage. However, he will have to reach a standard that has so far eluded him when donning the national team strip to conquer a Spanish side that remains beyond adequate description.
No superlative can do justice to Vicente Del Bosque's side, and the criticism leveled at them during this tournament suggests an inadequacy in the standards of reporting rather than any defect in their squad. Granted, the victory over France was not always enthralling, but that was predominately due to the performance of Laurent Blanc's team, who were disappointing in the extreme. The main accusation being made against them is that they have become boring, that they no longer excite in the manner they did in 2008. Whilst they are far from droll, Spain have admittedly had to readjust their approach due to the absence of  David Villa. Fernando Torres has done his bit when required, scoring twice against the Irish, but it is fair to say that he is not currently the attacking prospect that he was four years ago. As a consequence, Del Bosque has often elected to play without a recognized centre forward, a tactic that few people seem able to get their head around. The reasons why evade me...Spain's movement off the ball and the near telepathic understanding shared amongst their players means that they can afford to play without a traditional number 9. Those looking for evidence need look no further than Cesc Fabregas's two strikes at the tournament thus far and the brace scored by Xabi Alonso in their most recent triumph. The technical ability of their six regular midfielders means that they are all, with the exception of the more practical Sergio Busquets, able to provide a threat in and around the penalty area. This is a threat that Portugal will have to annul if they are to reach their first tournament final in 8 years.
Many will believe this is a task beyond Bento's team, considering they remain heavily reliant on one players for goals. But when that player is the world's most expensive, you have to credit the Portugese with a chance of toppling the Spanish. This is because the threat offered by Ronaldo is one that stretches to all areas of the final third. Take, for example, his goal against the Czechs; a diagonal run across the full back and bullet header capable of beating even the most gifted of keepers. Or his second goal against the Dutch, where he started and duly finished a swift Portugese counter-attack. Indeed, the key word in that last sentence was that most familiar of football tactics, the counter-attack, as it constitutes the crux of Portugal's attacking threat. Bento sets his team up to sit behind the ball and to frustrate their opponents and then to break rapidly down the wings when in possession. This is a game plan that has come to favour their captain, especially now that he is no longer being restricted in the wide positions. Against Spain, Portugal are likely to keep a narrow shape in the hope of pushing their opponents into the wide positions, an area in which they lack a recognized threat. This is not to say that Andres Iniesta and David Silva should be left to their own devices if they are selected, rather that they rarely elect to cross the ball when in possession, a tactic favored by Spain's full backs. Portugal will feel confident about defending against the high ball, especially considering the impressive form of their two centre backs in their games thus far. With one of their three midfielders often dropping deep to win the loose ball, they will then look to Joao Moutinho (another impressive performer at this tournament) to release either Ronaldo or Nani out wide, players that are capable of unsettling a Spanish defence that has not always looked comfortable when being ran at.
If Portugal can curb the attacking instincts of their two full backs, who will be required to maintain a consistent shape in defence, then they have a chance of stifling Spain. That being said, goalkeeper Rui Patricio remains a concern for some, and Spain are likely to try and test him in the early stages of the game. My main concern for Spain is their ability to stay on top throughout the 90 minutes, they were at times uncharacteristically sloppy against France and this suggests to me that some of their key players are feeling the effect of a long season for both club and country. Portugal are a relatively young side that are capable of working the opposition right until the final whistle, and it is for that reason I can see them getting an opportunity to attack (albeit infrequently) against Spain. With Ronaldo firing on all cylinders, this may suggest a more testing afternoon for Iker Casillas and co than they experienced last time out.

PREDICTION: Portugal win

GERMANY V ITALY

If Spain have been 'boring' at Euro 2012, no such comment can be made against Germany, who have regularly impressed their audiences with their attacking forays. the most remarkable thing about their game against Greece was that they conspired to concede two goals, despite dominating 99% of the contest. Joachim Low has set his team up to play high up the field, a strategy that suggests they are confident of out-scoring any team they come up against. With a wealth of attacking talent at their disposal, it is hard to argue against this sentiment. After Greece's equaliser, Germany scored three goals in 19 minutes, ample proof that they are the most potent attacking force left in the competition.
However, they are coming up against an Italy team that has conceded only twice and will be high on confidence after their dramatic victory over England. Cesare Prandelli has fashioned a side that has done much to restore some pride in Italian football after their domestic league was yet again ravaged by scandal, and for that he deserves a great amount of credit. Prandelli appears to be both practical and ambitious; after the England game, he spoke little of celebration but rather of aspiration, stating that celebrations would only be indulged when his team had won a trophy. This is a mentality that has quickly spread amongst members of the Italian squad and was personified so succinctly by Andrea Pirlo's audacious chipped penalty in Sunday night's shootout. Italy will not fear Germany, which suggests a fascinating game is ahead of us.
The current Italian team is doing much to shed the stereotypes attached to the DNA of football in their country, those being that 'Calcio' constitutes the prioritization of defensive organization over ball retention and attacking play. Whilst Italy remain an organized outfit under Prandelli, they now afford more time to their passing game and offer a more loosely defined role to their midfielders and forwards. An example of this is the prominence of Antonio Cassano in the starting eleven, a player previously seen as a luxury by Azzuri managers. Under Prandelli, the Milan striker has been allowed to play his natural game, which is to often drop deep and roam around the attacking third. Cassano's vision is indulged by the selection of either Mario Balotelli or Antonio Di Natale alongside him, strikers who are capable of making incisive runs beyond Cassano, who will then seek to find them with the through ball. Claudio Marchisio and Andrea Pirlo are also evidence that Prandelli is seeking to assemble a team that is flexible when attacking the opposition. Both players often occupy variables areas of the midfield, making them difficult to mark, a reality that dawned on Wayne Rooney far too late into Sunday's fixture. Pirlo, in particular, appears to be relishing his Indian summer and is likely to be decisive when it comes to Italy's chances of making the July 1st final.
If Italy's off-the-ball trends are difficult to defend against, then the German's are almost impossible to counter. Low has gradually encouraged his team to become more confident when providing an option for the man in possession, and this has seen almost every outfield player adopt an attacking mentality. At times against Greece, goalkeeper Manuel Neur would find himself closer to his halfway line than the goal, so high was the area being occupied by his defence. The emergence of Mats Hummels at Euro 2012 is demonstrative of the evolution of the Germany side, his confidence on the ball allowing him to be just as prominent going forward as he is when defending. Whilst this makes the Germans vulnerable when they lose possession, the presence of Neur in between the sticks means that they can be confident of keeping the opposition at bay. That being said, if Greece found the net against them twice, then Italy will surely fancy their chances of punishing any mistakes committed. Bastian Schweinsteiger will for this reason have to be more prudent in possession than he was on Friday evening if Germany wish to avoid any such castigation.
What swings the favour away from the Italians is the inconsistency of their attack; Cassano only returned to full fitness in April, Di Natale seldom starts and Balotelli remains frustratingly unpredictable. Against a team of Germany's class, you have to be able to rely on your attacking players to make the most of any opportunity they get, and the Italians inability to see off England over 120 minutes suggests that they may not be able to place such trust in their current crop of strikers. Die Mannschaft, on the other hand, will be more than sure that they can make the most of their chances, which are likely to be in higher supply than for their counterparts. For that reason alone, I expect Italy's Euro adventure to come to an end in this game. If that is the case, their heads should be held upwards rather than towards the ground, as they have defied many people's expectations at this tournament and have set a sound foundation for the future.

PREDICTION: Germany win

So folks, that would leave us anticipating a Portugal/Germany showdown on Sunday night...can Ronaldo put his demons to rest and fire his nation to glory? Or will Germany appease many people's pre-tournament forecast and lift their first trophy in 16 years? I'll be back to give my verdict on the game and the tournament as a whole next week. For the meanwhile, here's to two thoroughly entertaining semi-final games. Fingers crossed...

@benrasmin