The group stage of the 2012 European Championships concluded on Tuesday night with England registering a second consecutive victory, one which secured them top spot in Group D. If that reality is not an indication of the unpredictability of these championships, then the premature exit of pre-tournament favourites the Netherlands may well be. Either that or the unfancied duo of Czech Republic and Greece managing to escape Group A at the expense of Russia and co-hosts Poland. Yes, Euro 2012 has already provided plenty of shocks...but the most pleasing aspect of the tournament for me thus far has been the willingness of almost every side to play for the win, bringing an end to the negative 'avoid defeat at all costs' mentality that marred the 2010 World Cup. This positive alteration has meant that some of my forecasts for the group stage have not been altogether prophetic, but I'm willing to put my neck on the line and make my predictions for the quarter finals. Here goes...
Czech Republic v Portugal
The Czechs, along with the Dutch, are the side primarily responsible for spoiling my pre-tournament predictions. Rather than finishing bottom of Group A (a scenario that looked more than likely after their heavy defeat to Russia), they finished the group in top spot and subsequently set up a quarter-final tie against the perpetual 'nearly men' of the European Championships, Portugal. Michal Bilek deserves credit for the way he picked up his charges after their opening day capitulation, but he will know he faces a challenge to progress beyond this point. After their unfortunate defeat to Germany, Portugal have thrown off the shackles and made the most of their attacking talent, securing wins over both Denmark and the Netherlands to finish runners-up in Group B. Their marked improvement from their rigid performance against the Germans has largely been down to the arrival of Cristiano Ronaldo, who is finally threatening to recreate his club form at a major international tournament. After his deveastating performance against the Dutch, Ronaldo is likely to trouble a Czech defence that looks vulnerable. With Milan Baros also misfiring up front, Bilek's side will rely on the energy of their midfielders but it is likely that they will be given short shrift by Portugal's impressive midfield trio of Meireles, Moutinho and Veloso and the pairing of Bruno Alves and Pepe in defence. This being said, Paulo Bento's are often slow out of the traps so the onus will be on the Czech's to make it difficult for them from the onset, a task which will be made easier if talisman Tomas Rosicky is passed fit to play. As if often the case with these sort of ties, it is likely to be a lot tighter than most will expect, but I still expect Portugal's forwards to be the decisive factor.
PREDICTION: Portugal win
Germany v Greece
Many will see this as the mis-match of the knockout stages, given Greece's penchant for results-driven football. They registered the lowest amount of shots on goal in the group stage, yet still progressed at the expense of a Russia side blessed with attacking talent and a Poland team spearheaded by one of the most promising strikers on the continent in Robert Lewandowski. This goes to show that the Greeks cannot be underestimated, and that this tie may not be as straightforward as it is expected to be. For all their talent, the Germans have not hit full stride at this tournament so far and a slow start against the Greeks could make for a frustrating evening for Joachim Low's men. That being said, Germany have still registered three wins out of three, which suggests that they have adopted the sort of winning mentality needed to succeed on the international stage. Mario Gomez is looking forebodingly good at the top of the German attack, and the young defender Mats Hummels has marshalled the defence superbly thus far. Greece will miss captain Giorgous Karagounis, who is suspended, and their midfield will lose much of its attacking drive in his absence. They will hope to get in behind their opponent's full backs, where the likes of Dimitris Salpigidis can provide an attacking threat, but they will know that Phillip Lahm and Jerome Boateng (or Lars Bender for that matter) are more than competent at quelling any such threat. This may be the game where things 'click' for the Germans, and if it is, then the other teams remaining in the tournament should take note.
PREDICTION: Germany win
Spain v France
The French have been, in my estimation, one of the most disappointing sides at the tournament thus far. Against England they flattered to deceive and they squandered the chance to top Group B by failing to turn up against a Sweden side that had already been eliminated. Their just reward is a quarter final tie against the European and World Champions. Spain, much like the Germans, have failed to reach their peak thus far...they were frustrated by Italy in their opening game, and were fortunate to beat Croatia in their final fixture. Nonetheless, they still won Group C by two points and will head into this game feeling confident that they can expose an average French backline. Laurent Blanc must have been frustrated by the deficiencies displayed by his defence in their final group game, and he will know that these problems need to be addressed speedily if they are to stand a chance of progressing further in this tournament. One crumb of comfort for France is that their forward line could well trouble a Spain defence that looked penetrable during the group stages, though they will need to improve the supply afforded to Karim Benzema, who has cut a frustrated figure thus far. The solution may well be to introduce Arsenal-bound Olivier Giroud to partner Benzema, in the hope that the Ligue 1 top scorer can 'bully' Spain's back-line in the way that Didier Drogba harried Barcelona's defence in the Champions League semi-finals. Vicente Del Bosque, on the other hand, will have to consider whether to persist with Andres Iniesta and David Silva in the wide positions or to introduce a more conventional winger (Jesus Navas) to add more variety to Spain's attack, a conundrum that most international managers dream of. Either way, it is hard to see past a Spain victory in this tie, though you would hope that the French will at least make it difficult for them, a task which is by no means beyond them.
PREDICTION: Spain win
England v Italy
Of all the quarter-final ties, this is the most difficult to call. England have been superb so far under the wily management of Roy Hodgson, and the Italians have been equally impressive in the face of adversity back home. Both sides adopt a patient approach, though they contrast in the way in which they attack the opposition. England have been more direct under Hodgson, particularly when Andy Carroll is in the side, whereas Italy tend to play a possession game before picking holes in their opponent's defence. Andrea Pirlo is the master of this particular art, with few players being able to rival his range of passing or his vision. Claudio Marchisio has also caught the eye during the group stages and Daniele De Rossi promises commitment whether he is elected to play in midfield or defence. The absence of Giorgio Chiellini will be good news to England, though, with the Juventus man enjoying a solid tournament up until the injury he sustained against the Republic of Ireland. England are riding a wave of momentum after topping Group D and will go into this tie knowing that they are more than a match for the Italians, particularly now that Wayne Rooney is available for selection once more. The Manchester United striker wasn't at his best against Ukraine, but still grabbed the winning goal and linked up nicely with club colleague Danny Welbeck, who has been vital for the Three Lions thus far. Steven Gerrard has rose to the challenge of captaining the side, and he could well be the key player on Sunday, given the quality of his delivery from both open play and dead ball situations. My main fear for England is that the defence is still guilty of affording the opposition space to run into, which often means they rely on last-ditch tackles to cut out goalscoring chances. With Italy possessing three dangerous centre forwards as well as an impressive midfield, England will need to keep a tighter shape and try and push their opposition into wider areas. Ultimately, I can see this tie heading into extra-time and being decided by one goal, given the tactical acumen of both Hodgson and Cesare Prandelli. Regardless of who is eliminated, both men should be happy about their achievements in the tournament and should look to the 2014 World Cup with plenty of confidence.
PREDICTION: (Narrow) Italy win
So, if my that's anything to go by, the semi-finals will be...
Portugal v Spain
Germany v Italy
This means there is a possibility of a replay of the 2008 final between Spain and Germany, a contest which will leave most of us more than a little excited. But the 2011/12 Champions League season has shown us that just about anything can happen in football, so it would be foolish to discount the chances of Italy and Portugal pulling off an upset. After all, if Cristiano Ronaldo continues his upward trajectory then this could well be his year to finally shake off the shackles that has halted his international career to date. The Italians, on the other hand, will look to their 2006 triumph for inspiration, that being the year when international success came as a remedy to the problems engulfing their domestic league. Either way, it should be an exciting week or so of football. I'll be back to make my predictions for the semi-finals and the final in due course...
@benrasmin
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