Bayern to Upset the Odds...Briefly

It's that time of year again, the Champions League is drawing to its conclusion and once again, everybody is expecting Barcelona to breeze it. One key difference this year is, however, the prospect of their great rivals Real Madrid joining them in this years final. Can anyone stop El Classico from taking over Europe's premier competition? I think so...here are my predictions for the quarter-finals, semis and the Munich final.

(I am prepared for mockery if I get this wrong!)

 QUARTER-FINALS

APOEL Nicosia v Real Madrid



The mother of all mismatches...APOEL, hailing from the utopia of football that is Cyprus, take on the Champions League's most successful team. On their shock route to the quarter finals, everybody's favourite underdog have mustered a modest 7 goals, averaging 0.88 goals a game. Madrid on the otherhand? 24 goals and an average of 3 a game. As much as I'm sure we'd all love to see the Cyprians conquer Los Blancos, it's safe to say that it's not going to happen.

FORECAST: Madrid win













Benfica v Chelsea



A slightly more intriguing tie than the latter, this game could hold the key to Roberto di Matteo's chances of being named Chelsea's new, full-time manager. Most of the British press seem to see this as a game that favours Di Matteo's side, but I'm not so sure. Chelsea made hard work of their Round of 16 tie with Napoli, and I can't see them being any more efficient against Benfica. The Portuguese outfit are a young, energetic side that possess quality in key areas of the field, particularly in midfield. Oscar Cardozo has four goals in the competition (Didier Drogba is the only Chelsea player who can equal that tally) and Nicolas Gaitain is joint-top of the assists chart. Both sides are, however, relatively leaky at the back, with The Eagles having conceded 7 CL goals and Chelsea 8. With this in mind, I can see this fixture being akin to Chelsea's last European endeavour...unpredictable to the end, with fortune probably favouring John Terry and co.

FORECAST: (narrow) Chelsea win














Marseille v Bayern Munich

This is arguably as much of a mismatch as the APOEL/Madrid tie, though you'd be forgiven for thinking otherwise. Marseille are one of the most reputable names in French football and subsequently their name carries a considerable amount of prestige. However, this current outfit is undeniably poor. At the time of writing, they occupy 9th place in the Ligue 1 table whilst they were also fortuitous to eliminate Inter Milan in the Round of 16, Brandao's dramatic late goal in the second leg securing their progress. I am fairly confident their luck will run out here...they are coming up against a Bayern Munich side that have scored 20 goals in their last four fixtures, conceding only 1. Whilst Didier Deschamps has made Marseille relatively hard to penetrate in the Champions League (they have only conceded 6) they are coming up against a Bayern side high on confidence and with plenty of goals in them, and that should make for a relatively one-sided tie.

FORECAST: (comfortable) Bayern win













A.C. Milan v Barcelona

Milan were exposed by Arsenal in the second leg of their Round of 16 clash as a relatively ordinary side. Having brushed aside the Gunners with ease in the first leg, they laboured to an aggregate victory at the Emirates, shipping three goals on the way. They were so close to blowing their four goal advantage, and that should alert coach Massimiliano Allegri as he attempts to mastermind a victory over the best side in club football. His cause is not helped by the fact that Barcelona are in good shape heading into this clash, having cut Real Madrid's advantage in La Liga to just six points. Milan managed to hold Barcelona to a draw in the Nou Camp earlier on in the Champions League campaign, but it is hard to see them really troubling Pep Guardiola's side. It would take a gargantuan effort in the first leg to give them any chance of progressing, but even then their ropey away form in this years competition (they were held by both BATE and Victoria Plzen) is likely to see them disposed of with ease by Barca's fearsome attack. I can see only one winner.

FORECAST: Barcelona win

SEMI-FINALS



Real Madrid v Bayern Munich

It's here that I'm prepared to put my neck on the block (proverbially) and go against the general consensus and say that Bayern will deny us all the final that we yearn for. And, no, this prediction is not based on the fact that they are German and like to spoil everybody elses fun...well, not solely anyway. Real have breezed through the Champions League this year, barely breaking a sweat as they vanquish all mediocre opposition put in their path. Now, I'm not suggesting that they'll approach this final in a blase manner, because they won't...they're a Jose Mourinho side and will subsequently be well drilled and organised. But I do think that Madrid's players (not management) will be surprised by the quality of their opponents. Bayern's side is littered with quality...in Mario Gomez they have the competitions second deadliest finisher (10 goals) and in Franck Ribery they have a stylish playmaker who has already laid on 4 goals for his teammates. Also, Jupp Heyncke's side will be desperate to contest the Munich final, and their home advantage in the second leg could be the difference maker. With that being said, Bayern are going to have to play out of their skins if they're going to beat this Madrid side...

FORECAST: Bayern win (I think)

Chelsea v Barcelona

Simply put, if Chelsea do navigate their way past Benfica...they won't stick a chance against Barcelona. It will have been a gallant effort from Di Matteo's (or whoever really is in charge at Stamford Bridge) side to get so far despite being so distinctly ordinary, but this will be the end of their European adventure. Over the years, this fixture has provided us with some of the Champions Leagues greatest moments...the dramatic triumph of Jose Mourinho's Chelsea in 2005, the narrow victory by Barcelona in 2009...but I am not hopeful of such euphoria this time around. Simply put, Barcelona should stroll into this years final.

FORECAST: Barcelona win

THE FINAL

Bayern Munich v Barcelona

Call me strange, but this potential final excites me more than one between Barcelona and Madrid does...why you ask? Because the El Classico fixture has become somewhat of a nuisance over recent years...people bill it as the meeting of footballs two supreme sides, and it is, but very rarely does the football reflect this truth. Instead, both teams act like the football equivalent of squabbling children in a playground of thousands...there is play-acting, malicious fouls, fights, complaints from both parents (the managers) and the outcome is always the same...Barca win. Maybe, given the magnitude of the occasion, we would actually get a match that lives up to its hype, but I seriously doubt it. I would much rather see Bayern line up against Barcelona in Allianz Arena, because then at least there would be an air of uncertainty with regards to the final result, albeit a very slight one. But seriously, think about some of the potential duels to be awaited in this clash...

Arjen Robben v Dani Alves

Mario Gomez v Gerard Pique

Franck Ribery v Sergio Busquets

Lionel Messi v Holger Badstuber...

Okay, Barcelona are going to win the Champions League...probably comfortably. But surely you can forgive me for trying to inject some unpredictability into this most predictable of affairs.

FORECAST...







Carroll and Suarez...The Unlikely Lads

Firsts first, Liverpool were impressive last night. They moved the ball around well and their transition from defence to attack was more impressive than it has been throughout the season. Granted, they were aided by the fact Everton deployed the toothless pairing of Victor Anichebe and Dennis Stracqualursi up front, but this was one of the most impressive displays served to the Anfield faithful in a season that has been mixed to say the very least. Steven Gerrard was imperial in the centre of midfield, grabbing the second hattrick of his career, a feat that was achieved largely due to the sterling work of Luis Suarez up front. The Uruguayan was not a constant menace to Everton's well drilled back four, but when he did manage to evade his (numerous) markers, it was to devastating effect, as he laid on two of Gerrard's goals. This prompted the captain to speculate about the potential of an attacking trio involving himself, Suarez and Liverpool's other expensive striker, Andy Carroll.

Feasibly, these three undoubtedly talented players do possess complimentary attributes that could see them form the sort of forward line that Liverpool fans have dreamt of for some time. Carroll, at his best, is a devastatingly imposing target man, capable of being the sort of focal point that players of Gerrard and Suarez's ilk love playing off. Such potential was on show last night, with the £35 million striker occasionally flicking the ball into the path of the oncoming duo, and the noted contribution of the Uruguayan in the build up to Gerrard's final two strikes. However, these signs came infrequently and should not mask a problem that has dogged Liverpool throughout this season, that problem being that they have not scored enough goals.

It has been well documented that the Reds have the lowest chance conversion rate in the division, a surely disturbing figure to supporters of the club, especially when considering that Kenny Dalglish lavished almost £60 million on Carroll and Suarez alone. Neither player has contributed regularly enough in front of goal, the former contributing a paltry three league goals and the latter an only marginally better six. This would suggest, to me at least, that neither player are suited to playing alongside one another, and last nights performance did little to convince me otherwise.

Carroll is at his best when he is the focal point of the attack, his goalscoring record for Newcastle in the 2010-11 season shows that (11 goals in 19 league appearances). However, at Liverpool he has thus far been asked to mostly act as the foil for Suarez, who in turn has been asked to play off the shoulder of the last defender. This is an unnatural role for both players, and has subsequently hindered their contribution to the team in front of goal. Previously, Carroll has been most effective when playing as a lone striker, with a box-to-box midfielder (such as Gerrard) playing off him and quick, direct wingers supplying crosses to him from out wide. Suarez, meanwhile, has been at his most menacing for Liverpool when given licence to roam up front. His most impressive moments last night was when he was allowed to run at Everton's back four, and so it would seem that to ask him to play in tandem with a striker of such different styling is to the detriment of the team.

This would appear to leave Dalglish with a dilemma heading in to next season, that being whether to persist in his dogged stance that the Carroll/Suarez partnership will pay off, or to offload one of them, which is likely to be to the detriment of his reputation. Currently, Liverpool play a style of football that is focused on getting the ball into dangerous pockets of space in the final third whilst keeping things compact in defence and midfield. Both Carroll and Suarez could be accommodated in this system, though it's my belief that the former would require greater service from the wide areas, with neither Dirk Kuyt or Jordan Henderson being natural wide outlets. There has been speculation (speculation being the key word) that Suarez may seek a move in the summer after the outcry from the race row between he and Patrice Evra earlier in the season, so King Kenny's hand may be forced anyway. If the 2010 World Cup semi-finalist were to leave Liverpool in the close season, he is unlikely to be missed by anyone other than Liverpool fans, despite the fact that he has at times illuminated what has been a drab league campaign at Anfield. Were this to happen, it would give Carroll the opportunity that you sense he craves to show he is not an expensive flop, rather a player being deployed alongside an unnatural bedfellow. My suspicion that a parting of the ways with one of these lavish signings, coupled with one or two first-team recruits, could elevate Liverpool to the top-four status that Dalglish's transfer outlay should bring.

*A quick aside...anyone that was doubting Steven Gerrard's ability and fitness going into this summers European Championships got a rude awakening last night. He was outstanding from start to finish and could well flourish for his country in the right formation.

Chelsea job a poisoned chalice

Originally, I wasn't going to blog about Roman Abramovich's dismissal of his eight manager at Chelsea since he bought the club in 2003. However, the speculation regarding Andre Villas-Boas's replacement has become so hysterical and so devoid of any semblance of reality, it is almost an unavoidable topic.
Who in their right mind would want to take the Chelsea job???
Granted, they still have one of the strongest squads in the Premier League, despite their shortcomings thus far this season, and are one of the biggest clubs in the league, but stature is no substitute for the sound footing that any club needs to succeed. Roman Abramovich and his entourage of advisers have no strategy in place to ensure either Chelsea's short term or long term success. And this is sure to be a serious turn-off to any manager that takes his reputation seriously.
Villas-Boas arrived at the club with a growing reputation in European football. He had just completed a remarkable treble with Porto and had previously been highly regarded by both Sir Bobby Robson and Jose Mourinho. On face value, he seemed like an ambitious appointment by a club that had previously turned to experienced campaigners with considerably long CVs. The plan, we were told, was for Villas-Boas to re-build the club over three years whilst maintaining their success in the short term, with the ultimate aim being for Chelsea to be able to compete with the likes of Barcelona and Real Madrid in Europe. This obviously now looks ridiculous, so tumultuous was AVB's reign, but at the time it seemed to be at least slightly plausible.
Regardless of the mistakes made by Chelsea's now ex-manager, the fact that he has been dismissed just six months into this 'three year plan' sums up everything that is wrong at the football club at the moment. Abramovich has become too trigger-happy; he dismissed 'Phil' Scolari in similar circumstances, cast aside Avram Grant for losing the Champions League final (on penalties!!!) and then undermined Carlo Ancelotti before duly giving him his marching orders.
Some may argue that, as the owner of the club, Abramovich is entitled to appoint and dismiss managers as he chooses. He has, after all, invested significant amounts of money into a club that before his arrival were little more than a mid-table club, who participated in the odd cup final every now and then. His endless supplies of money has seen a complete revolution in the clubs image and, indeed, their success. Three Premier League trophies, three FA Cups and two League Cups have arrived at Stamford Bridge since the Russian billionaire took charge of the club. Much of this success was of course down to the efficiency of Chelsea's coaching and playing staff, but it is an unavoidable truth that performers of such capabilities would not have been at the club were it not for the presence of Abramovich and, more significantly, his money. Therefore, there is a slightly warped argument to be made that suggests a chairman has the right to act in a completely illogical manner, providing he invests heavily in the club and oversees some success on the field of play.
The flip-side of this argument is, of course, that this philosophy will eventually damage the clubs reputation both domestically and throughout Europe. Since the removing of Villas-Boas as manager, some of Europe's most feted coaches have been touted as his replacement, Pep Guardiola and Jose Mourinho being the two most noteworthy names. These are not completely unfeasible suggestions; Guardiola's contract at Barcelona expires at the end of this season and Mourinho has well-documented connections with the club, as well as a very stormy relationship with current employers Real Madrid. However, the idea that either of these two will be keen to leave Europe's two most eminent clubs for the soap opera that is Chelsea is wildly unrealistic, particularly in the case of Guardiola. Barcelona are a club built on heritage and a sound, long-term strategy, therefore making them the complete opposite to what Chelsea have become, a home to wildly inflated egoes and uncomfortable managers.
The identity of Chelsea's new manager is likely to hinder on whether they can qualify for the Champions League at the end of the season; failure to do so will be a complete disaster for a club that have invested so heavily in their playing staff in recent years. If they manage to pip Arsenal to fourth place then they may be able to entice a coach with a strong pedigree (though I seriously doubt he will be either of the aforementioned), but if they don't then they are facing a very uncertain future in which they will no longer be able to attract top players or indeed top managers. And that will be a crisis of Abramovich's own doing.